The timing was ironic: Just two days after the suicide of former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun - a staunch supporter of engagement with North Korea - induced a profound sense of shock and grief in the Republic of Korea, North Korea once again shook its fist in defiance at the international community by conducting another nuclear test.

Its first test in October 2006 was a "fizzle" which failed to achieve the predicted explosive yield, but according to seismic data, this test appears to have had a yield of 20 kilotons. This is similar to the atomic bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The test, which was accompanied by the firing of short range missiles, follows the April launch of a Taepodong-2 long-range missile in defiance of a United Nations Security Council resolution.

International condemnation was swift and predictable. President Barack Obama accused Pyongyang of directly and recklessly challenging in the international community. Prime Minister Gordon Brown threatened North Korea with isolation if it did not behave "responsibly." Britain is not directly involved in the negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear program, but the British embassy in Pyongyang is an important source of intelligence for the U.S. government, which has no representatives in the DPRK. But Brown's statement will not cut any ice in Pyongyang. The international community currently has no leverage over North Korea, which is already isolated and not responsive to international condemnation or sanctions.

Two years ago, relations between the United States and North Korea seemed to be on a path towards a new era. An agreement to eliminate North Korea's nuclear program in return for economic support, security assurances and the normalization of relations with the United States was reached and North Korea was removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. The Yongbyon nuclear reactor and reprocessing facilities were closed under the supervision of IAEA inspectors. The highlight was the dramatic collapse of the cooling tower in Yongbyon. So what has gone wrong? First of all there was the deterioration in relations between North and South Korea as the Lee Myung-bak government adopted a harder line towards the North, demanding more significant concessions for economic aid.

After a South Korean tourist was killed by a North Korean soldier in the Mount Geumgang resort in July 2008, things went from bad to worse and practically all North-South dialogue has ceased. The Six Party Talks on the nuclear program stalled because the United States considered the information provided by the North Korean government on its nuclear facilities inadequate and demanded strict verification protocols, which the North Korean military rejected.

The U.S. presidential elections meant that negotiations had to wait for the Obama administration to appoint its own officials and formulate its policy towards North Korea.

Pyongyang's behavior can be seen as an effort to influence the Obama administration and use its growing military capabilities to induce further concessions. It would like to abandon the Six Party process, which North Koreans find tedious and unproductive, in favor of direct bilateral talks with the United States.

There is no doubt that despite and in defiance of its commitments to disarm, North Korea has used the last two years to significantly develop its nuclear capabilities. The second test was a success and confirms the views expressed in the U.S. intelligence community that North Korea has the capability to produce nuclear devices that can be mounted on long-range missiles.

The space launch in April, although the satellite failed to reach orbit, also demonstrated quite convincingly the progress North Korea has made in its missile technology. This is alarming because if this continues unchecked, the day in which North Korea could launch a nuclear weapon at the continental United States is coming closer.

At the same time, the DPRK has its own internal political problems. Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke in 2008 and political control passed temporarily to the military leadership. With the succession to Kim, who is suffering from a multitude of health problems, remaining unresolved, the various factions are poised for a leadership struggle. It is no coincidence that the adoption of a harder line towards the nuclear issue followed Kim's illness. Clearly the hardliners in the military have reasserted themselves. The mood among the military is not to continue with further disarmament.

Nevertheless, some of the signals that Kim has sent despite all the hostile rhetoric seem to indicate that Pyongyang still does want ultimately to improve relations with the United States. The nuclear tantrum seems to be aimed at forcing the United States into the recognition of the DPRK as a nuclear state with a small arsenal and deliver economic aid in return for capping its nuclear and missiles program. But the Obama administration is adamantly opposed to this kind of deal. Its policy is now to wait and see for North Korea to take the diplomatic initiative.

We can expect further provocations. North Korea will not be quiet for long.

By Christoph Bluth

2009.05.27